Gazmend Demolli ka publikuar edhe rezultatet e projeksionit p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e qershorit 2026, ku sipas modelit t\u00eb tij statistikor, L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet bindsh\u00ebm forca e par\u00eb politike n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n
Sipas grafik\u00ebs s\u00eb publikuar nga Demolli, LVV projektohet me 49.1 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb votave, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb pas Partin\u00eb Demokratike t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs me 20.4 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vendin e tret\u00eb renditet Lidhja Demokratike e Kosov\u00ebs me 16.3 p\u00ebr qind, nd\u00ebrsa subjektet e minoriteteve projektohen me 8.1 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n
Aleanca p\u00ebr Ardhm\u00ebrin\u00eb e Kosov\u00ebs sipas k\u00ebtij projeksioni arrin n\u00eb 5.6 p\u00ebr qind, kurse t\u00eb gjitha subjektet e tjera s\u00eb bashku marrin vet\u00ebm 0.5 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n
Demolli pretendon se analiza \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar mbi 1,250 inpute t\u00eb validuara, me algoritme t\u00eb avancuara p\u00ebr filtrimin e votimeve t\u00eb orkestruara dhe eliminimin e anomalive statistikore. Ai thekson se modeli \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201ct\u00ebr\u00ebsisht i pavarur\u201d dhe pa nd\u00ebrhyrje editoriale apo politike.<\/p>\n
Rezultatet jan\u00eb publikuar si pjes\u00eb e projeksionit agregat p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e qershorit 2026, bazuar n\u00eb krahasimin me trendet elektorale t\u00eb dhjetorit 2025.<\/p>\n
Analisti Gazmend Demolli ka publikuar nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb detajuar lidhur me zgjedhjet e qershorit 2026, duke pretenduar se modeli i p\u00ebrdorur \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar mbi baza t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht statistikore dhe algoritmike, me kontroll t\u00eb plot\u00eb t\u00eb gabimeve njer\u00ebzore dhe teknike.<\/p>\n
Sipas Demollit, analiza \u00ebsht\u00eb bazuar n\u00eb 1,250 inpute totale, prej t\u00eb cilave 800 jan\u00eb nga rezident\u00ebt dhe 450 nga diaspora. Ai thekson se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat nga diaspora jan\u00eb kalibruar p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb \u201ckoeficienti logjistik\u201d, duke marr\u00eb p\u00ebr baz\u00eb fluksin maksimal t\u00eb pritsh\u00ebm t\u00eb udh\u00ebtimeve gjat\u00eb muajit qershor, me q\u00ebllim eliminimin e deklarimeve joreale nga jasht\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb dokument thuhet se marzhi i gabimit \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00b12.8 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje, me interval besimi 95 p\u00ebr qind, nd\u00ebrsa modeli llogarit edhe varianc\u00ebn jolineare t\u00eb sjelljes elektorale.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme e analiz\u00ebs lidhet me filtrimin e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave online. Demolli b\u00ebn t\u00eb ditur se \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur algoritmi DBSCAN p\u00ebr t\u00eb identifikuar dhe eliminuar anomalit\u00eb statistikore, votimet e orkestruara dhe rreshtat e dyfisht\u00eb. Sipas tij, jan\u00eb larguar t\u00eb gjitha votimet q\u00eb kan\u00eb ardhur nga IP identike, si dhe gjurm\u00ebt e fabrikuara t\u00eb shfletuesve.<\/p>\n
Analiza bazohet n\u00eb tri shtylla metodologjike kryesore:<\/p>\n
\u2022 CMGR \u2013 q\u00eb mat rritjen dhe l\u00ebvizjet demografike krahasuar me zgjedhjet e vitit 2021 n\u00eb nivel t\u00eb qendrave t\u00eb votimit.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Matrica e tranzicionit \u2013 q\u00eb llogarit l\u00ebvizjen neto t\u00eb votuesve mes partive politike, duke ndar\u00eb vot\u00ebn tradicionale nga ajo q\u00eb konsiderohet \u201ce lir\u00eb\u201d p\u00ebr transferim.<\/p>\n
\u2022 LOCK-IN \u2013 q\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton bllokimin e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb parametrave statistik\u00eb p\u00ebrpara nisjes s\u00eb analiz\u00ebs, pa nd\u00ebrhyrje editoriale apo subjektive pas p\u00ebrpunimit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave.<\/p>\n
Demolli pretendon se projeksioni \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201ct\u00ebr\u00ebsisht i pavarur\u201d dhe i nd\u00ebrtuar mbi verifikim strikt inxhinierik, pa ndikime politike apo redaktuese.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fund t\u00eb prezantimit paralajm\u00ebrohet edhe \u201cVala 2\u201d e zgjerimit t\u00eb kampionit, ku qytetar\u00ebt ftohen t\u00eb deklarojn\u00eb vot\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb dhjetorit 2025 dhe preferenc\u00ebn p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e qershorit 2026, p\u00ebr t\u00eb kaluar m\u00eb pas n\u00eb projeksionin final elektoral.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gazmend Demolli ka publikuar edhe rezultatet e projeksionit p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e qershorit 2026, ku sipas modelit t\u00eb tij statistikor, L\u00ebvizja Vet\u00ebvendosje vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet bindsh\u00ebm forca e par\u00eb politike n\u00eb vend. Sipas grafik\u00ebs s\u00eb publikuar nga Demolli, LVV projektohet me 49.1 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb votave, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb pas Partin\u00eb Demokratike t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs me 20.4 p\u00ebr…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12277,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/IMG_5890.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12276"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12276\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12278,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12276\/revisions\/12278"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}