SHBA sulmon Iranin? Duket se situata po afrohet drejt nj\u00eb goditjeje ndaj Teheranit. Prej jav\u00ebsh, Uashingtoni ka rritur ndjesh\u00ebm pranin\u00eb ushtarake n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, duket gati t\u00eb grumbulloj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb fuqi ajrore n\u00eb rajon, se sa n\u00eb \u00e7do moment q\u00eb nga pushtimi i Irakut n\u00eb vitin 2003.<\/p>\n
Aleat\u00ebt arab\u00eb t\u00eb SHBA n\u00eb Gjirin Persik thuhet se kan\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar p\u00ebr pasojat e paparashikueshme t\u00eb nj\u00eb sulmi, duke pasur frik\u00eb se \u201cefekti boomerang\u201d do t\u00eb binte mbi ta.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, edhe n\u00ebse objektivat ushtarake jan\u00eb relativisht t\u00eb parashikueshme, pasojat p\u00ebrfundimtare nuk jan\u00eb. N\u00ebse negociatat d\u00ebshtojn\u00eb dhe presidenti Donald Trump vendos t\u00eb urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm, k\u00ebto jan\u00eb 7 skenar\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb diskutuar.<\/p>\n
1) SHBA sulmon Iranin: pak viktima civile\u2026 dhe nj\u00eb tranzicion drejt demokracis\u00eb<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar, forcat ajrore dhe detare amerikane kryejn\u00eb sulme t\u00eb kufizuara dhe t\u00eb sakta ndaj objektivave ky\u00e7e: bazave t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike (IRGC), nj\u00ebsis\u00eb paraushtarake Basij, depozitave dhe l\u00ebshuesve t\u00eb raketave balistike, si edhe element\u00ebve t\u00eb programit b\u00ebrthamor.<\/p>\n
Rezultati \u201cideal\u201d do t\u00eb ishte rr\u00ebzimi i nj\u00eb regjimi tashm\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar dhe nj\u00eb tranzicion i ngadalt\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb demokracie funksionale, ku Irani do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb ribashkohej me bot\u00ebn. Por ky \u00ebsht\u00eb skenar shum\u00eb optimist: nd\u00ebrhyrjet per\u00ebndimore n\u00eb Irak dhe Libi nuk prodhuan tranzicione t\u00eb qeta. Ato rr\u00ebzuan diktatura, por hap\u00ebn edhe vite kaosi, gjakderdhje dhe fragmentim institucional.<\/p>\n
2) Regjimi mbijeton, por zbutet<\/p>\n
Ky mund t\u00eb quhet \u201cmodeli venezuelian\u201d: nj\u00eb veprim i shpejt\u00eb dhe i fuqish\u00ebm amerikan e l\u00eb regjimin n\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00eb, por e detyron t\u00eb zbus\u00eb politikat.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb rastin e Iranit, kjo do t\u00eb thoshte q\u00eb Republika Islamike mbijeton (gj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk do t\u2019i k\u00ebnaqte shum\u00eb iranian\u00eb), por detyrohet t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen p\u00ebr milicit\u00eb n\u00eb rajon, t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb programet b\u00ebrthamore dhe raketore dhe t\u00eb ul\u00eb represionin ndaj protestave.<\/p>\n
Edhe ky skenar shihet si m\u00eb pak i mundsh\u00ebm, sepse lidershipi iranian ka q\u00ebndruar i pal\u00ebkundur p\u00ebr dekada. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi suprem Ali Khamenei, tashm\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb t\u00eb thyer, p\u00ebrshkruhet shpesh si jasht\u00ebzakonisht rezistent ndaj kompromisit.<\/p>\n
3) Regjimi shembet, por z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohet nga pushteti ushtarak<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb analist\u00eb e shohin k\u00ebt\u00eb si nj\u00eb nga skenar\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm. Edhe pse regjimi \u00ebsht\u00eb jopopullor dhe val\u00ebt e protestave e kan\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar, n\u00eb Iran ekziston nj\u00eb \u201cshtet i thell\u00eb\u201d, i organizuar dhe i rr\u00ebnjosur, me interes t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr ruajtjen e status quo-s\u00eb. IRGC, p\u00ebr shembull, ka ndikim t\u00eb gjer\u00eb edhe n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb arsye pse protestat nuk e kan\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar ende regjimin \u00ebsht\u00eb mungesa e \u201cdezertimeve\u201d t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nga brenda aparatit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, si dhe gatishm\u00ebria e pushtetit p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur forc\u00eb ekstreme. N\u00eb rr\u00ebmuj\u00ebn pas nj\u00eb sulmi, \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb vendi t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb n\u00ebn nj\u00eb qeveri t\u00eb fort\u00eb ushtarake, t\u00eb dominuar nga figura t\u00eb IRGC.<\/p>\n
4) Hakmarrje iraniane ndaj bazave amerikane, fqinj\u00ebve arab\u00eb dhe Izraelit<\/p>\n
Ky skenar konsiderohet shum\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm. Irani ka paralajm\u00ebruar se do t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet ndaj \u00e7do sulmi, dhe retorika e udh\u00ebheqjes ka qen\u00eb e qart\u00eb: \u201cgishti \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebz\u201d.<\/p>\n
Edhe pse Irani nuk e rivalizon dot fuqin\u00eb e Marin\u00ebs dhe Forcave Ajrore amerikane, ai mund t\u00eb godas\u00eb me arsenalin e raketave balistike dhe dron\u00ebve, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb fshehur n\u00eb shpella, n\u00ebntok\u00eb ose n\u00eb zona malore.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb an\u00ebn arabe t\u00eb Gjirit ka baza amerikane (p.sh. n\u00eb Bahrein e Katar), por Irani mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebnjestroj\u00eb edhe infrastruktur\u00eb kritike t\u00eb vendeve q\u00eb i konsideron bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtore, si Jordania, ose objektiva izraelite. Sulmi i vitit 2019 ndaj objekteve t\u00eb Aramco-s n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite (i atribuuar nj\u00eb grupi t\u00eb lidhur me Iranin) tregoi sa t\u00eb prekshme jan\u00eb edhe fuqit\u00eb e Gjirit.<\/p>\n
5) Minimi i Gjirit dhe rreziku p\u00ebr Hormuzin<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr form\u00eb hakmarrjeje do t\u00eb ishte vendosja e minave detare n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim i njohur q\u00eb nga lufta Iran-Irak (1980\u20131988), kur u minuan korridoret e lundrimit dhe u desh\u00ebn operacione t\u00eb gjera pastrimi.<\/p>\n
Ngushtica e Hormuzit, midis Iranit dhe Omanit, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cgryk\u00eb shishe\u201d strategjike. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm (LNG) kalon aty. \u00c7do nd\u00ebrprerje do t\u00eb godiste tregtin\u00eb globale dhe do t\u00eb shtynte \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb lart.<\/p>\n
Paradoxi: humb\u00ebsi m\u00eb i madh do t\u00eb ishte vet\u00eb Irani, sepse edhe ai varet nga eksportet e naft\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhura, po ashtu edhe klient\u00ebt e tij kryesor\u00eb n\u00eb Azi, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Kina.<\/p>\n
6) Irani fundos nj\u00eb anije amerikane<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb skenar m\u00eb i friksh\u00ebm (edhe pse m\u00eb pak i mundsh\u00ebm) \u00ebsht\u00eb fundosja e nj\u00eb anijeje amerikane, p\u00ebrmes asaj q\u00eb quhet \u201csulm n\u00eb tuf\u00eb\u201d: shum\u00eb dron\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyes dhe anije t\u00eb shpejta me torpedo q\u00eb synojn\u00eb t\u00eb tejkalojn\u00eb mbrojtjen e af\u00ebrt t\u00eb anijes.<\/p>\n
Forcat detare t\u00eb IRGC jan\u00eb st\u00ebrvitur prej koh\u00ebsh p\u00ebr luft\u00eb asimetrike: jo p\u00ebr t\u00eb mposhtur teknologjin\u00eb amerikane n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb klasike, por p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur vrima, t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb kaos dhe t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb goditje simbolike.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb anije e fundosur dhe kapja e t\u00eb mbijetuarve do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb posht\u00ebrim i madh p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb nxiste nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje shum\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr. Historia ka precedent\u00eb tragjik\u00eb: USS Cole u sulmua n\u00eb Aden n\u00eb vitin 2000, nd\u00ebrsa USS Stark u godit n\u00eb vitin 1987 n\u00eb Gjirin Persik.<\/p>\n
7) Shembje e regjimit dhe kaos i zgjatur<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb rreziku \u201csirian-libian\u201d: r\u00ebnia e regjimit pa nj\u00eb plan t\u00eb qart\u00eb pasues. Mund t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptoj\u00eb luft\u00eb civile, fragmentim shtet\u00ebror dhe shp\u00ebrthim tensionesh etnike, nd\u00ebrsa minoritetet (kurde, belu\u00e7e, azerbajxhanase e t\u00eb tjera) k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb komunitetet e tyre n\u00eb nj\u00eb vakum pushteti.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb aktor\u00eb rajonal\u00eb do t\u00eb donin fundin e Republik\u00ebs Islamike, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Izraeli, q\u00eb e sheh Iranin si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial. Por pothuajse askush nuk d\u00ebshiron q\u00eb vendi m\u00eb i madh i Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme p\u00ebr nga popullsia (rreth 93 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb) t\u00eb zhytet n\u00eb kaos, sepse kjo do t\u00eb sillte nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb humanitare dhe refugjat\u00ebsh me efekt domino.<\/p>\n
Rreziku m\u00eb i madh \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb nis\u00eb pa nj\u00eb \u201cfund t\u00eb qart\u00eb\u201d: nj\u00eb fushat\u00eb q\u00eb fillon me objektiva t\u00eb dukshme, por p\u00ebrfundon n\u00eb nj\u00eb spirale hakmarrjesh dhe p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi, me pasoja t\u00eb paparashikueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin, dhe p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn. \/ BBC \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SHBA sulmon Iranin? Duket se situata po afrohet drejt nj\u00eb goditjeje ndaj Teheranit. Prej jav\u00ebsh, Uashingtoni ka rritur ndjesh\u00ebm pranin\u00eb ushtarake n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, duket gati t\u00eb grumbulloj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb fuqi ajrore n\u00eb rajon, se sa n\u00eb \u00e7do moment q\u00eb nga pushtimi i Irakut n\u00eb vitin 2003. Aleat\u00ebt arab\u00eb t\u00eb SHBA n\u00eb Gjirin Persik…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lajme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_9111-1.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4024"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4024\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4026,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4024\/revisions\/4026"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/toolsyo.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}